da pinup bet： Real Madrid came to the Etihad Stadium last night to stifle Manchester City, to leave England with a positive result and head home level in the tie, believing they can beat anyone at the Bernabeu.
da fezbet： They probably can. This is Real Madrid, after all. They are a team whose name is synonymous with winning, a team who do it with style and verve, and also a team possessing Cristiano Ronaldo.
So – surely – that was the reason for their ultra-defensive bent last night in east Manchester, an unfamiliar look they wore quite well: partly down to the fact that Ronaldo was missing, and partly down to some sort of big European night pragmatism; the likes of which Manchester City are yet to develop.
But City themselves were pragmatic in their approach. They were certainly the better team for the first 40 minutes or so – up until David Silva had to leave the pitch. A couple of great saves from Joe Hart were needed, but City thought that a 0-0 draw at home in a Champions League semi final was actually a good result for them, too. If City as a club don’t yet have the European experience, Manuel Pellegrini certainly does.
It’s not an unknown phenomenon that a draw is a good result for both teams, or that both teams think it is. But the difference here is that we usually see it in league games – games when both teams feel that they can take a point from each other now and then go out and beat other, weaker teams further down the line. Usually in knockout competitions, a draw suits one team and not the other. If you have any edge in the second leg – say, an away goal – you tip the balance, even slightly.
Which begs the question: who’s got the equation wrong, Real Madrid or Manchester City?
The prevailing sentiment in the English media suggests that most English observers think City have it wrong. ‘Manchester City fail to show enough ambition’, ‘Manchester City miss their chance’. These are the kinds of headlines that scream out on the back pages of the newspapers this morning.
And they’re right, in a way. What better chance will Manchester City ever have of beating Real Madrid than one where they play at home against a Madrid missing Cristiano Ronaldo? It makes sense – and the game was there for the taking if they showed enough ambition.
But that misses two things.
Firstly, Manchester City don’t need to beat Real Madrid. That much has been overlooked somewhat. Going to the Bernabeu and ‘nicking a draw’ (surely easier than its older cousin ‘nicking a win’) will see City through – or at least give them the chance to go through in extra time or penalties.
The 0-0 at the Etihad seems to put Real Madrid in the driving seat. But actually, City are ahead on points. Madrid have already ensured that the away goals stakes will remain at least even, and if Aguero, De Bruyne and co can ‘nick a goal’ at the Bernabeu, Manchester City will pose Madrid a question – the answer to which will leave them more exposed to further away goals.
That leads into the second point that is missed. Namely that football is changing.
No longer does an away game in European competition mean late nights and long travels – not when it’s a EasyJet jaunt from Manchester to Madrid at any rate. Home advantage has been lost somewhat.
But I’m starting to wonder if home advantage is more of a burden these days. The weight of expectation is still there, there is an obligation to win your home leg – and no obligation in world football is as strong as that placed on Real Madrid at the Bernabeu.
Leicester City have proved this season – along with the likes of Chelsea in the 2012 Champions League knockout stages amongst other teams and their achievements – that playing without the ball and hitting strong on the counter attack is an effective ploy. Football has changed to the point where counter attacking is incredibly important and home advantage seems to count for less.
In a changed game, the away goals rule is dangerous for teams who are at home in the second leg. We’re still at a point where conventional wisdom is based upon what is arguably a dated version of the game, and that wisdom would tell you that having the home leg second is a blessing because it’s easier to win at home.
These days there is a new calculation. But the feeling stays the same, the obligation to win at home stays the same. These days, having the home leg second is almost a burden, because it should force you to go out in the first leg in search of an away goal to lessen your defensive workload at home whilst the fans and the media will still pile on the pressure in the home leg. Real Madrid didn’t do that.
Manchester City, meanwhile, have avoided the worst possible thing in a European semi final – conceding an away goal. And when they go to the Bernabeu next week, Real Madrid will have to attack them, exposing themselves that very worst possible thing.
Madrid’s incredible attack will have to be unleashed, but City will hope to hit them on the break, and one goal next week could well be as valuable as a victory would have been last night.
It turns out City didn’t miss a trick, they played one.
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